SitRep: A Mistake Geopolitical Analysts Are Making

By Tim Gamble

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There is a lot going on in the world. A lot of possible flashpoints for WWII: Russia/Ukraine, China/Taiwan, Israel/Iran and it proxies. There are a lot of analysts, both professional and amateur, weighing in with their opinions. In these reports, I see a big mistake being made quite regularly.

The mistake is assuming that because America is weak, relative to what we've been in the past, that our adversaries are strong. This simply isn't true. 

We tend to overestimate the strength of our adversaries. A great example is Russia, which is currently bogged down in a multi-year war in Ukraine. A war many analysts, including myself, thought would be over in a matter of weeks, or months at the most. The thinking was that the mighty Russian military would make quick work of Ukraine. It obviously didn't happen that way. Yet there are still folks who think Russia wants to conquer other parts of Europe or even represents a real threat to America at any moment. Nukes aside, they don't and they aren't. Right now they have their plate full with Ukraine. 

Likewise, China isn't as strong as many think. They are having their own considerable economic problems. Xi's grip on power is still not fully consolidated (as evidenced by his repeated purges of political and military leadership). And their much flaunted navy, impressive in numbers, pales under close examination which reveals that much of those numbers are converted fishing vessels that are not deep-sea worthy. That is the real reason why they actually haven't moved on Taiwan yet, despite the extraordinary political weakness of the US. 

Iran, too, is not nearly as strong as many think. They are not ready for a ground war in the Middle East, which is why all they do is lob missiles and drones Israel's way, and not to much success. And as for speculation that Iran and the other Muslim nations could gang up on Israel, that is highly unlikely to happen. Iran is Persian and Shia, while the others are Arab and Sunni. The two sides have many cultural and religious differences, and frankly don't like each other very much (understatement). A strong Muslim alliance is not likely to occur, even against a common enemy in Israel. Much rhetoric, maybe, but no strong alliance. 

Any of these flashpoints could escalate into World War III at any moment. If it does so, it will be much more by accident than by design.

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